PThe Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change
EDepartment of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia
Technical assistance partners: Environmental Canada; BC Ministry of Forests, Mines and Lands; US Forest Services; University of Melbourne; Chinese Academy of Forestry; Jiangxi Agricultural University; Nanjing Forestry University; Research Institute of Insect Resources, China
Target economies: China, Canada, Austria
Duration: 36 months, 1 Nov 2011-31 Oct 2014
Goal: The project aims to develop adaptive strategies that will facilitate an increase in the resilience of forests and forest-dependent communities in the Asia-Pacific region to climate change by applying state-of-the-art technologies and analytical approaches from climate modelling, geospatial analysis and sustainable forest management.
Objectives and activities
Objective 1: Analysis of current knowledge on impacts of climate on forests in the Asia-Pacific Region
♦ Research on climate change and forest adaptation and mitigation
♦ Climate issues in the Asia-Pacific region, and current strategies and actions
♦ Accomplishment and effectiveness analysis, and opportunities for improvement
Objective 2: Development and application of high-resolution climate models ClimateWNA and ClimateAP
♦ Data collection and processing
♦ Model development
♦ Model validation and the generation of climate maps for the reference and future periods
Objective 3: Development of ecological models
♦ Collection of vegetation data including the data for three major tree species distributions in western North America, China and Australia
♦ Generation of high-resolution climate data for the locations where vegetation data are collected, and gridded climate data for projections of bioclimate envelope maps.
♦ Development of models to capture the plant-climate relationships using the machine-learning approach Random Forest and process-based approach TACA and LANDIS models.
Objective 4: Pilot study and development of recommendations for SFM practices for adaptation
♦ pilot research work
♦ Integration between ecological model predictions and local forest management
♦ Application of best management practices to the pilot sites
Objective 5: Communication, network building and technology transfer
Objective 6: development of web-based climate tools for APFNet
Expected outputs: A report analyzing current knowledge on climate change studies in forest ecosystems and forest dependent communities in this region; High-resolution climate models that can generate climate data for any location in the region for historical years (1901‒2010) and future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). High-resolution climate maps including some important climate variables, such as mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, arid index and growing degree-days, for the entire region; Ecological models that predict impacts of climate change on major tree species distributions (Chinese fir; Eucalyptus; and Douglas-fir). Maps of predicted shifts in suitable climatic conditions for these major marketable tree species will be provided for various climate change scenarios; SFM recommendations to increase the resilience of forests and forest-dependent communities in the Asia-Pacific region to climate change; A network that connects scientists, forest managers and policy makers in the region to share information, knowledge and new research products; Web-based scientific tools for regional forest rehabilitation and afforestation including interactive climate models, climate maps, bioclimate maps for major ecosystems and some important tree species.